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Extracts from the Global Economic Prospects: Slow Growth, Policy Challenges by the World Bank

10-01-2020

The World Bank released its biannual Global Economic Prospects report. According to World Bank forecasts:

The world economy is poised for a modest rebound this year, but outlook is fragile. Emerging, developing economy growth to accelerate in 2020 as some emerging economies recover from periods of stress. Rise in debt, slowdown in productivity pose challenges for policymakers.

Global growth is set to rise by 2.5% this year, a small uptick from 2.4% in 2019, both down by 0.2% from World Bank forecasts in June, 2019, as trade and investment gradually recover. Recovery over the mid-term may be strengthened by policy actions to ease trade tensions and constantly reduce uncertainty.

Advanced economies are expected to slow as a group to 1.4% from 1.6%, mainly reflecting lingering weakness in manufacturing. The economic growth may slow from 2.3% in 2019 to 1.8% in 2020 for the US, and from 1.1% in 2019 to 1% in 2020 for the Euro zone.

Emerging market and developing economies will see growth accelerate to 4.1% from 3.5% last year.

This modest rally could be disrupted by any number of threats. Trade disputes could re-escalate. A sharper-than-expected growth slowdown in major economies would similarly reverberate widely. A resurgence of financial stress in large emerging markets, an escalation of geopolitical tensions, or a series of extreme weather events could all have adverse effects on economic activity around the world.

Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, Vice President of World Bank, said that countries should take decisive reform measures to ameliorate business environment and taxation policies, promote trade integration, and restore productivity growth.